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Original Article |

Predictors of Future Success in Otolaryngology Residency Applicants

Richard A. Chole, MD, PhD; M. Allison Ogden, MD
Arch Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg. 2012;138(8):707-712. doi:10.1001/archoto.2012.1374.
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Objective  To evaluate the information available about otolaryngology residency applicants for factors that may predict future success as an otolaryngologist.

Design  Retrospective review of residency applications; survey of resident graduates and otolaryngology clinical faculty.

Setting  Otolaryngology residency program.

Participants  Otolaryngology program graduates from 2001 to 2010 and current clinical faculty from Barnes-Jewish Hospital/Washington University School of Medicine.

Main Outcome Measure  Overall ratings of the otolaryngology graduates by clinical faculty (on a 5-point scale) were compared with the resident application attributes that might predict success. The application factors studied are United States Medical Licensing Examination part 1 score, Alpha Omega Alpha Honor Medical Society election, medical school grades, letter of recommendation, rank of the medical school, extracurricular activities, residency interview, experience with acting intern, and extracurricular activities.

Results  Forty-six graduates were included in the study. The overall faculty rating of the residents showed good interrater reliability. The objective factors, letters of recommendation, experience as an acting intern, and musical excellence showed no correlation with higher faculty rating. Rank of the medical school and faculty interview weakly correlated with faculty rating. Having excelled in a team sport correlated with higher faculty rating.

Conclusions  Many of the application factors typically used during otolaryngology residency candidate selection may not be predictive of future capabilities as a clinician. Prior excellence in a team sport may suggest continued success in the health care team.

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Figures

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Figure 1. Department faculty were asked to rate graduates of the program on a 0 to 4 scale, lowest to highest. The figure depicts a rank order of these residents ± SD.

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Figure 2. Regression analysis shows no correlation between United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) part 1 scores and postgraduation ratings. Scores of American Board of Otolaryngology (ABOto) directors are shown for comparison. For the postgraduation rating, 0 is the lowest, and 4 is the highest.

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Figure 3. Regression analysis shows no correlation between election to AOA as a medical student and postgraduation ratings. Status of American Board of Otolaryngology (ABOto) directors is shown for comparison. For the postgraduation rating, 0 is the lowest, and 4 is the highest.

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Figure 4. Regression analysis shows no correlation between percentage of honors in clinical rotations as a student and postgraduation ratings. For the postgraduation rating, 0 is the lowest, and 4 is the highest.

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Figure 5. Regression analysis shows no significant correlation between letters of recommendation and postgraduation ratings. For the postgraduation rating, 0 is the lowest, and 4 is the highest.

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Figure 6. Regression analysis shows no significant correlation between a clinical rotation at Washington University, St Louis, Missouri, and postgraduation ratings. For the postgraduation rating, 0 is the lowest, and 4 is the highest.

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Figure 7. Regression analysis shows no significant correlation between accomplishment in music and postgraduation ratings. Status of American Board of Otolaryngology (ABOto) directors are shown for comparison. For the postgraduation rating, 0 is the lowest, and 4 is the highest.

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Figure 8. Regression analysis shows a weak correlation between preresidency interview scores and postgraduation ratings. For the postgraduation rating, 0 is the lowest, and 4 is the highest.

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Figure 9. Regression analysis shows a significant correlation between the US News & World Report12 medical school rank (in deciles) and postgraduation ratings. Home institutions of the American Board of Otolaryngology (ABOto) directors is shown for comparison. For the postgraduation rating, 0 is the lowest, and 4 is the highest. IMG indicates International Medical Graduate.

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Figure 10. Regression analysis shows a significant correlation between the achievement as an athlete and postgraduation ratings. The status of the American Board of Otolaryngology (ABOto) directors is shown for comparison. For the postgraduation rating, 0 is the lowest, and 4 is the highest.

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